New home consent data for the year ended March 2025 reveals a striking divergence between New Zealand’s two main islands. The North Island recorded 23,570 new home consents — a 7.1% decrease on the previous year — while the South Island bucked the national trend, reaching 10,491 consents for a 6.4% increase over the same period.
The total for Aotearoa was 34,062 new homes consented, down 3.3% overall. But the headline figure conceals a significant geographic story.
Queenstown and Otago Lead the South
Stats NZ economic indicators spokesperson Michelle Feyen attributed the South Island’s growth to strong consent numbers in Otago, Tasman, and Canterbury. Queenstown is a particular driver: in the 12 months to March 2025, 2,556 new homes were consented in Otago — the highest number ever recorded for the region.
Queenstown’s housing market is being sustained by a combination of strong tourism employment, migration from other regions, and demand from buyers priced out of larger cities. While affordability in Queenstown is itself a serious issue, the pipeline of new supply is at least growing.
Internal Migration Is Reshaping Demand
The consent data reflects broader internal migration trends. Kiwis are increasingly moving away from Auckland toward regions offering lower housing costs, different lifestyle options, and in some cases stronger local economies. Nelson and Tasman — also contributing to the South Island’s growth — are attracting both retirees and working families.
In the North Island, the construction sector is feeling the effects of a slower consent pipeline. Auckland — which historically drives a disproportionate share of national consent numbers — has seen significant declines, partly as developers pull back in response to interest rates and construction cost uncertainty.
What It Means for Builders
For builders considering where to base their operations or expand into, the consent data is a useful leading indicator of where work will be in 12 to 18 months. The South Island — particularly the Queenstown-Otago corridor and the Nelson-Tasman region — is showing stronger forward demand than many parts of the North Island at present.
Labour and materials supply in the South Island can be tighter than in Auckland or Wellington, but margins tend to hold better in markets where competition is less intense. Builders with the flexibility to take on projects in growing South Island markets may find conditions more favourable than those sticking to regions where the market is contracting.