The Initial Reprieve
When the Trump administration announced sweeping new tariffs on imports in April 2025, New Zealand’s wood processing sector was watching closely. The country exports USD 215 million of radiata pine to the United States annually, making it New Zealand’s third-largest forest products export market after China and Australia. The initial tariff announcement placed timber in a category facing a 10 percent baseline tariff — until powerful US industry groups intervened.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the American Building Materials Alliance lobbied the Trump administration to reconsider, arguing that tariffs on imported timber would exacerbate the United States’ housing affordability crisis, drive up construction costs, and impede disaster recovery following California’s devastating wildfires. US timber prices had already surged more than 30 percent in preceding months. The argument was effective: wood products were temporarily exempted pending the outcome of a formal Section 232 national security investigation, launched on 2 March 2025 and expected to conclude in late November 2025.
Why the US Market Matters
New Zealand’s radiata pine is particularly valued in the US market for its quality and appearance — prized by American buyers for clear grades and its suitability for the DIY home construction segment. WPMA Chief Executive Mark Ross described the market in terms of its strategic importance: “It’s a growth market, and there’s a shortage of lumber and timber products here for the home construction and the do-it-yourself market. And that’s what we feed into.”
Between 15 and 18 New Zealand mills regularly supply to American buyers, exporting clear pine boards, primed products, and lumber. The market also serves as a diversification from New Zealand’s heavy reliance on China as the primary export destination — a reliance that carries its own geopolitical risks.
What Comes Next
The Section 232 investigation gives the US administration the mechanism to apply tariffs on national security grounds — a broad framing that has been used in previous administrations to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium. New Zealand’s government and industry are monitoring the investigation’s progress while maintaining dialogue with US trade counterparts. The WPMA opted not to submit a formal response to the investigation, following official advice. Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay’s office has confirmed ongoing discussions.
Ross’s assessment of the outlook is candid: “We are just going to have to wait. We simply don’t know what comes next.” For NZ forestry and processing businesses with US export exposure, the Section 232 outcome will determine whether the temporary exemption becomes permanent or gives way to tariffs that would materially affect the economics of the export relationship.
