New Zealand’s property market is continuing its gradual shift toward buyers and renters, after several years in which sellers and landlords held near-total advantage. CoreLogic NZ’s Pain & Gain report for the second quarter of 2024 shows 92.1% of properties reselling for more than their original purchase price — down from 92.9% in Q1 2024, and the lowest figure since Q3 2015.
For construction and development professionals, understanding property market dynamics is important context for project feasibility, forward workload planning, and client behaviour.
What the Pain and Gain Data Shows
The CoreLogic Pain and Gain measure is a useful indicator of market health. In a hot market, the proportion of profitable resales is high (often above 95%) because prices rise faster than the cost of ownership. In a cooling market, more owners find themselves selling at a loss — particularly those who bought near the peak of the cycle.
At 92.1%, the current market is not in distress by historical standards — the majority of owners are still selling profitably. But the trend matters: three consecutive quarters of declining profitable resales signal ongoing price softness rather than a brief correction.
“CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson notes that the ‘peak to trough’ decline in property values has been around 17% nationally since late 2021,” the report notes, “with Auckland experiencing the largest fall.”
What This Means for Construction
Property market softness creates a complex environment for residential construction. On one hand, lower land and property prices can improve the feasibility of infill development by reducing acquisition costs. On the other, homeowners who have seen their equity fall are less likely to invest in significant renovations, and developers who need to pre-sell before building find buyers more cautious.
The renovation and alteration market has been more resilient than new construction through this period — homeowners who cannot afford to buy a better home have instead been improving the one they have. For builders with renovation capability, this segment has provided more consistent work than the new build market.
The Outlook
With interest rates falling from their 2023 peaks, the conditions for a gradual market recovery are forming. The timing and pace of recovery will vary significantly by location — Auckland faces more structural headwinds than some regional markets — but the direction of travel is toward improved conditions for buyers and developers over 2025 and 2026.